Introduction: Determining "in demand," "not in demand" or "balanced"
The 2013 methodology is based on industry and occupational projections. Specific levels of job growth and job openings are used to designate an occupation as "in demand," "not in demand," or "balanced."
Occupations that are included
Unsuppressed occupations with employment in base year 2011, employing 50 or more persons, are included in this analysis.
Time frames used for projection
- Five-year projections for 2011-2016, using average growth rates and job openings.
- Ten-year projections for 2011-2021, using average growth rates and job openings.
- A combination of two-(2012Q2-2014Q2) and ten-year (2011-2021) projections, using average growth rates and job openings.
Stage one: Identifying provisional "in demand" and "not in demand" categories
Stage two: Identifying occupational categories
- Occupations with average annual growth rates of at least 90 percent of their respective geographic areas (statewide or workforce development area) total average annual growth rates and a share of total openings of at least .08 percent are "in demand."
- Occupations with average annual growth rates less than 70 percent of their respective geographic areas total growth rates and a share of total openings of less than 1 percent are "not in demand."
The final list: Local adjustments
- If within any of the three projection time frames (five years, ten years and two/ten years), an occupation is categorized as being "in demand," it receives the provisional identification of "in demand."
- If within any of the three projection time frames, the same occupation is categorized as "not in demand," it receives a second provisional identification of "not in demand." The occupation now has two provisional identifications.
- If this occupation has two initial identifications of "in demand" and "not in demand," it gets re- identified as "balanced."
- All other occupations, not meeting the thresholds from stage one, are identified as "balanced."
The Labor Market and Performance Analysis branch uses the methodology outlined above to prepare initial lists for the state as a whole and by workforce development area. Those lists are then given to local workforce development councils to review, adjust and approve on the basis of their local, on-the-ground experience.